The San Diego real estate market continues to be in the "neutral" to "seller's favor" category when we consider the statistical performance of the detached and attached markets in our county. Interest rates are at extremely low levels, prices are very good and the number of foreclosures is down.
As of today, here's how it looks:
Detached: There are currently 7,669 detached homes on the market compared to 7,057 last month, up about 8%. 1,802 new escrows were opened in June vs. 1,677 in May, also up about 8%. This gives us about 4.3 months of inventory vs. 4.2 last month. When we add the new "contingents" (short sales with accepted buyer offer but awaiting lender approval) 2,391 more homes came off the market. Adding the new escrows and contingents shows us that 4,193 detached homes went under contract. If we take this number and divide it into the 7,669 homes on the market we show 1.83 months of supply. Normally 4 to 6 months of inventory is considered "neutral", anything below favors the seller and above favors the buyer. This means that there is still substantial market movement. Keep in mind this includes homes in all price ranges and the results could be different if analyzed by price band or area.
Attached: There are now 3,640 attached properties on the market for sale, up from 3,360 the month prior. During June 875 units went into new escrows compared to 876 the month before. Dividing the new escrows by the number of active listings we show 4.2 months of inventory, up from 3.8 last month. This approximate 10% increase in turnover time still leaves us in the "neutral" to "seller's favor" category. Another 1,892 units went "contingent" during June compared to 2.001 in May. Adding the "pendings" and "contingents" gives us a total of 2,767 units that went under contract and a 1.32 month supply of units now on the market, meaning that prices are strong.
Congress is in the process of extending the tax credit for home buyers but this will apply only to contracts that were ratified prior to the previous deadline so no new contracts will qualify.
Lately I have seen the short sale activity moving up the price ladder as many of the lower priced units have already either been foreclosed or short sold. Lenders are now (finally) adding staff to handle short sales more efficiently as they slowly learned that they will net more from a short sale than a foreclosure. They are also starting to establish policies to deal with borrowers who are strategically defaulting (walking away from their home with no other financial issues) that will penalize them on future purchases.
Keep in mind that real estate is highly "local" and that the numbers above cover our entire county. If you are considering a new home I can easily present you the numbers in your price range, preferred neighborhood, house style, etc. so you get the most relevant statistics (and so should your local agent if you are not in San Diego).
R. Ungar, Associate Broker – Keller Williams Realty
