North County Times - April 15, 2010
More evidence emerged Wednesday that the region's housing market is climbing out of its deep recession, with values increasing in March from Del Mar through Riverside County.
In North County, home prices have recaptured some of the value lost in the foreclosure-driven crash of 2006 through 2009, when the median price of single-family houses fell by 40 percent.
In March, the median hit $469,000, up 29 percent from March 2009 and the highest level since June 2008, said the North San Diego County Association of Realtors. The median rose 6.8 percent from February, the eighth monthly increase in the last year.
The growth in the North County values appears to exceed the trajectory of the county as a whole: Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which measures San Diego County, showed home values rising between May and December at a 12.5 percent annual rate.
Analysts and real estate agents said a shortage of entry-level homes and a slight rebound in sales of the most expensive properties may have driven the increase.
In Riverside County, the median home price reached $198,000, up 5.8 percent from March 2009, and up 1 percent from February, according to real estate research firm MDA DataQuick. Riverside County has taken longer to hit bottom, as the region's building boom of the 2000s and its high rate of foreclosures have provided buyers with plenty of deals.
Riverside County real estate agents said some of the lower-priced homes started to get multiple bids around the start of the year, but not enough to push up prices.
"I haven't seen a lot of increase in prices in the market I'm working in," said Elaine Ninberg, a Murrieta-based real estate agent. "There's too many foreclosures and too much supply."
In North County, the inventory of homes tightened in March: At the March sales pace, the current supply of homes would last 5.5 months, down from 7.1 months in February.
Jeff Hayes, a real estate agent in Encinitas, said he thinks supply in Encinitas, Carlsbad and Cardiff may even be lower, around 3.5 months. The lack of low-end homes may stem from lenders' reluctance to foreclose on delinquent borrowers.
"We just don't have much inventory out there right now," he said. "That's good news for sellers."
For the first time in months, the North County Realtors' report also showed movement in the market for homes at the top of the market. Realtors sold 37 homes worth more than $1.5 million in March, up from the previous March.
That number is small enough to be a statistical anomaly, but real estate agents agreed that there is some fizz in the market for expensive homes.
In Rancho Santa Fe, where homes tend to sell for between $1.8 million and $2.5 million, real estate agent Steve Salinas expressed cautious optimism that the market may be ready to come out of the doldrums.
"We have cooperating brokers who want to talk to our agents about listings; foot traffic has increased, after it was totally dead for months," he said.
He also said the much-discussed potential for interest rate increases on mortgages -- a tenth of a point means a lot on a $1.5 million loan -- could be pushing buyers of expensive homes into looking.
But demand for homes at all levels may be improving in part because prospective buyers are impatiently waiting for the economy to improve, San Diego State University instructor Mark Goldman said.
"I think we're sick and tired of being sick and tired," he said.
Market update & advice from our brokerage
We do not see prices climbing, but properties priced at market value, set by recent comparable sales, are not staying on the market long.
Statistical summary for the San Diego real estate market over the last month:
Keep in mind that our local market may perform better or worse than other sub-markets around the country and that national reports may not accurately reflect what happens here. In short, the number of active listings for detached homes increased about 10% in March but the number of new escrows opened increased also. There is currently about a 3 month supply of detached homes on the market which means it is a seller's market with prices rising. Much of the strength is still in the lower price ranges (below $500,000) because the financing options above that are still tricky. When you add the number of new "contingents" (short sales that reached contractual agreements but are awaiting lender approval) to that number another 2,500 detached homes went off the market. That means that 4,571 homes went off the market in March. When divided by the 6,196 now on the market we arrive at a 0.74 month (about 3 weeks) supply of detached inventory.
Condos/Townhomes:
3,022 attached units are now on the market, up from 2,896 last month. 1,154 new attached unit escrows were opened last month, up from 1,005 the month prior. 2,047 attached units went into the "contingent" status, so when you combine that with the 1,154 new escrows we see that a total of 3,201 attached units went off the market in March giving us a 0.68 month supply of attached properties. Prices are rising in this category as well.
Statistical summary for the San Diego real estate market over the last month:
Keep in mind that our local market may perform better or worse than other sub-markets around the country and that national reports may not accurately reflect what happens here. In short, the number of active listings for detached homes increased about 10% in March but the number of new escrows opened increased also. There is currently about a 3 month supply of detached homes on the market which means it is a seller's market with prices rising. Much of the strength is still in the lower price ranges (below $500,000) because the financing options above that are still tricky. When you add the number of new "contingents" (short sales that reached contractual agreements but are awaiting lender approval) to that number another 2,500 detached homes went off the market. That means that 4,571 homes went off the market in March. When divided by the 6,196 now on the market we arrive at a 0.74 month (about 3 weeks) supply of detached inventory.
Condos/Townhomes:
3,022 attached units are now on the market, up from 2,896 last month. 1,154 new attached unit escrows were opened last month, up from 1,005 the month prior. 2,047 attached units went into the "contingent" status, so when you combine that with the 1,154 new escrows we see that a total of 3,201 attached units went off the market in March giving us a 0.68 month supply of attached properties. Prices are rising in this category as well.
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