This Week; after some increase in rates last week, but technically managing to hold bullish bias; the bond and mortgage markets have the FOMC meeting to think about. Not only the bond market but the stock market as well with many expecting some sort of easing out of the Fed. The economic outlook hasn't improved since Bernanke said in late August he has more tools in his box to help stimulate a recovery. Hard to buy into that however, QE 2 didn't do anything to jump the economy, in fact the recent economic data has been weaker than expected. There is talk the Fed may announce it will begin selling short-dated maturities while increasing the purchases of longer dated noted and bonds. That of course would likely keep long rates from increasing.
There is much data to look at this week' weekly jobless claims and Aug existing home sales lead the way. August housing starts and permits are also out this week. Sales, starts and permits are all expected to have declined in August.
TBWS
