Financial Market Update

This Week: existing and new home sales are the main focus but unlikely to show any change in the trend of weak sales that has been the situation for two years. Japan's problems with their nuclear reactors remain but the latest reports imply some progress on a couple of reactors while a another reactor is weakening. In Libya the UN forces clobbered Libyan positions with heavy use of missiles but Qaddafi remains defiant. Treasuries and mortgage rates are likely to stay within a tight range as long as there is no change in the situations in Japan and in the Mideast.

The stock market, after the strong selling on panic moves is likely to rebound and recover most of the losses on the indexes. Gold and crude oil likely to increase in price after a volatile last week. Through the week as long as investors return to equity markets the bond and mortgage markets will see prices fall and yields increase. The week is very likely to be volatile from day to day with unfolding news out of Japan and the Mideast. We do not expect interest rates to increase a lot, but we also don't see any major decline this week. Still suggest using the recent rate decline to get deals done and not get enthused about lower rates. Interest rates are not likely to fall much while the wider perspective is still bearish as the US economy improves and the ECB likely to raise rates.



TBWS

Renew your lease - rents could rise 10%

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) - March 15, 2011

Renters beware: Double-digit rent hikes may be coming soon.

Already, rental vacancy rates have dipped below the 10% mark, where they had been lodged for most of the past three years.

"The demand for rental housing has already started to increase," said Peggy Alford, president of Rent.com. "Young people are starting to get rid of their roommates and move out of their parent's basements."

By 2012, she predicts the vacancy rate will hover at a mere 5%. And with fewer units on the market, prices will explode.

Rent hikes have averaged less than 1% a year over the past decade, according to Commerce Department statistics, adjusted for inflation. Now, Alford expects rents to spike 7% or so in each of the next two years -- to a national average that will top $800 per month.

In the hottest rental markets, the increases will likely top the 10% mark annually for the next couple of years. In San Diego, Alford anticipates rents will rise more than 31% by 2015. In Seattle rents will climb 29% over that period; and in Boston, they may jump between 25% and 30%.

This is a sharp change from the recession, when many Americans couldn't afford to live on their own. More than 1.2 million young adults moved back in with their parents from 2005 to 2010, said Lesley Deutch of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Many others doubled up together.

As a result, landlords had to reduce prices and offer big incentives to snag renters.
We paid cash for our million-dollar home.

Now that the recession is easing, many of these young people are ready to find new digs, mostly as renters, not owners. Plus, the foreclosure crisis continues unabated, and the millions losing their homes are looking for new places to live.

Apartment developers many not be able to keep up with this heightened demand, which will force prices upwards, according to Chris Macke, a real estate analyst with CoStar, which tracks multi-family housing trends.

"There will be an envelope of two or three years," said Macke, "when the rise in demand for rentals will exceed the industry's ability to meet it."

Plus, Alford added, "there's been a shift in the American Dream. We're learning from our surveys that a huge proportion of people are choosing to rent."

They've experienced the downsides of homeownership -- or seen friends and family suffer -- and don't want to take the risks or pay the higher costs of homeownership.

Where homeownership costs are particularly high, there are many more renters than owners. In Manhattan, for example, only about 20% own their homes; in San Francisco, about of third of the population does; in Los Angeles, less than 40%; and in Chicago, about 44%.

There's one factor that could rein in rent increases: the huge number of foreclosed homes that could hit the market over the next few years.

In many markets, like Phoenix and Las Vegas, there are neighborhoods filled with recently built, single-family homes going for fire-sale prices. When the cost of owning homes falls well below the costs of renting them, more people will buy.

"That's always been the biggest competition for rentals," said Deutch.

Keller Williams Realty Climbs to Second-Largest Real Estate Franchise in United States

Goals set for worldwide expansion to add 75,000 international associates

AUSTIN, TEXAS (March 8, 2011) Press Release—Keller Williams® Realty Inc., announced today that it is now the second-largest real estate franchise in the United States based on the total number of sales professionals, surpassing Century 21, according to research conducted by REAL Trends, a leading source of analysis and information in the residential real estate industry. The company claimed the number two spot with 77,672 U.S.-based associates at the end of 2010, just two years after claiming the number three spot from RE/MAX® International.

“Once again, this milestone achievement is a direct result of the dedication of our associates and the stability and profitability of the Keller Williams business models," said Mark Willis, CEO of Keller Williams Realty, Inc. “It’s incredible to see the momentum that our associates and our offices have right now."

This news comes one week after the announcement of positive growth by the company at their annual convention in Anaheim. Including its presence in Canada, Keller Williams closed the year with 79,315 associates and 701 market centers (offices). At the convention, Willis also shared that Keller Williams associate profit share was up 7.2 percent, with its agents receiving $34.6 million dollars back in 2010. Despite industry contraction, Keller Williams associates across North America also showed significant percentage gains in listings taken (+13%), contracts closed volume (+9%) and contracts closed units (+6%).

The company also formed Keller Williams Worldwide with Chris Heller as president, citing plans for global expansion, with plans to grow the division by an additional 75,000 associates in 10 years.

“Our goals are to expand the Keller Williams Realty model – with the focus on training and our sound business models," said Chris Heller, president of KW Worldwide. “And, when looking for the right country and business partners in planning for expansion, we will not sacrifice the perfect fit with our mission, vision and the KW culture, those are absolutely necessary."

Despite the sharp downturn in the real estate market, since 2005 Keller Williams Realty has grown 30 percent in agents, 40 percent in market centers, 21 percent in closed units and 11 percent in closed GCI.

Keller Williams Realty received many accolades in 2010 including:
· Entrepreneur magazine, No. 1 ranked real estate franchise on the 31st Annual Franchise 500 list
· J.D. Power and Associates, highest in overall satisfaction ratings from home buyers among the largest full-service real estate firms for the third year in a row
· Inman News, Co-Founder and Chairman of the Board Gary Keller named one of the 100 Most Influential Leaders in Real Estate
· Training Magazine, highest ranking real estate franchise on the annual Training Top 125, #47 Overall

“It is such an honor to be a part of a company with such dedicated and driven people," said Mary Tennant, president and COO of Keller Williams Realty. “Our associates are setting the pace in the industry. It is truly an exciting time to be in real estate and to be a part of the Keller Williams family."


About Keller Williams Realty, Inc.:
Founded in 1983, Keller Williams Realty Inc. is the second-largest real estate franchise operation in the United States, with 701 offices and almost 80,000 associates in the United States and Canada. The company, which began franchising in 1990, has an agent-centric culture that emphasizes access to leading-edge education and promotes an economic model that rewards associates as stakeholders and partners. The company also provides specialized agents in luxury homes and commercial real estate properties. For more information, or to search for homes for sale visit Keller Williams Realty online at (www.kw.com) Information about Keller Williams Realty’s international expansion can be found at (www.kwworldwide.com).

Market update & advice from our brokerage

The local inventory in both detached and attached units fell, the number of new escrows increased significantly.  This reflects investors, many paying all cash, taking advantage of the low prices and buyers locking in the still low interest rates.  The number of new foreclosures hitting the market has  apparently not had a negative effect on sales or pricing .  I would expect the sales activity to improve further during the spring and summer months.  It is not unusual for investors to lead the market out of a bottom with individual buyers to wait until prices have increased 10% or more, along with interest rates.  My personal opinion is that, with the general economy starting to show signs of improvement, real estate will follow.  That is not to say there won't be any bumps in the road, but generally speaking things are looking better than they have in a long time.  The "flood" of new bank owned properties has not materialized yet because many banks have finally learned that they are their own worst competition and that if they move their inventory to the market slowly they will make more in the end (this is one of the few things they have done correctly).
 
If you are considering doing a short sale on your own property I would suggest you do it sooner rather than later as some banks have been foreclosing in spite of having a higher offer in hand.  Don't ask me why, there's no good reason, but we've seen it several times over the last month.  Once the Notice of Trustee's Sale is filed it is becoming very difficult to successfully complete a short sale, so get started before that happens!
 
Have a great March and let me know what questions you have.  I'd love to discuss the value of your San Diego home or start a focused automatic home search for you or refer you to an excellent agent in your area if you do not currently live here.



R. Ungar, Associate Broker – Keller Williams Realty