This Week; after interest rates fell last week the market will likely have some hurdles to deal with. This is employment week with early estimates of non-farm job growth of 185K and non-farm private jobs up 220K. Although those are early estimates they seem to be much higher than what we think, but we won't fight it as employment is always a wide range of estimates. Prior to the May employment on Friday markets will deal with a number of data points; both ISM reports (manufacturing and servicing), the Chicago purchasing mgrs index, Q1 productivity and unit labor costs.
News over the weekend that there may be a deal working to help Greece with its debt issues. If a deal is worked out US interest rate markets will have trouble holding their recent declines; much of the recent bond market rally has been safety moves on the potential of Greece defaulting o its debt and other countries also in line. If Greece is saved markets will believe all other European countries will also be saved from default. Look for weaker prices in the bond and mortgages to start the week and likely a better US stock market. Last week's decline in interest rates put the levels so low that to keep them there, or even lower, it will take a weak economic outlook and continued safety moves based on Europe's debt problems.
TBWS
Financial Market Update
This Week: is employment week with BLS employment data On Friday. IN the meantime there are a number of data points that will get attention. Monday the ISM April manufacturing and Wednesday the ISM services sector. April manufacturing is expected a little weaker but only slightly. Employment at the start of the week and subject to tweaking as the week progresses, is expected to show non-farm job growth at 183K and non-farm private jobs +200K, the unemployment rate unch at 8.8%. Wednesday ADP will report non-arm private jobs at 200K, one of the first times the two reports estimates are the same.
The bond and mortgage markets may see some selling early this week after nice gains over the past two weeks. The economic recovery is slowing, Q1 GDP a month ago was expected up 3.0% to 3.5%, the first look last Thursday was an increase of just 1.8% and Q2 is also seen as slowing. The bellwether 10 yr note hit 3.29% mid-day Friday and likely doesn't have much more left, 3.25% is about all we expect. That said, we are somewhat less negative on the rate markets than just a month ago, rates will likely notch up from now through the rest of the year, possibly 30 to 40 basis points on the note.
TBWS
The bond and mortgage markets may see some selling early this week after nice gains over the past two weeks. The economic recovery is slowing, Q1 GDP a month ago was expected up 3.0% to 3.5%, the first look last Thursday was an increase of just 1.8% and Q2 is also seen as slowing. The bellwether 10 yr note hit 3.29% mid-day Friday and likely doesn't have much more left, 3.25% is about all we expect. That said, we are somewhat less negative on the rate markets than just a month ago, rates will likely notch up from now through the rest of the year, possibly 30 to 40 basis points on the note.
TBWS
Market update & advice from our brokerage
Detached Homes: 7,770 homes are now on the market vs. 7,567 last month and 6,547 a year ago. 1,852 new escrows opened in April vs. 1,897 a year ago, plus another 2,289 homes went "contingent" (short sales awaiting lender approval) vs. 2,206 last month. Dividing the new escrows into the total inventory gives a turnover rate of 4.2 months vs. 3.99 a month ago. This puts prices in the neutral to slightly rising category countywide. Sellers must still price competitively and buyers can not expect large discounts.
Attached Homes: 3,623 condos are now on the market vs. 3,657 last month. 878 units went into new escrows in April vs. 921 the month prior. This gives us a turnover rate of 4.13 months vs. 3.97 a month ago and means that prices are neutral to slightly rising. Another 1,457 units went contingent in April vs. 1,446 in March.
I do not usually add the "contingents" into the "new escrows" because it is impossible to determine how many will eventually close escrow due to the nature of short sales.
The data reported above covers all of San Diego County and should not be interpreted as being accurate for specific zip codes or neighborhoods or any area outside of our county. We'd be happy to provide very detailed information for any sub-market in San Diego upon request.
Bottom line for April...the market seems to be fairly stable with prices neutral to slightly rising.
Criteria: <5 months: Neutral to rising, 5-7 months: Neutral, >7 months: Falling
R. Üngar, Associate Broker – Keller Williams Realty
Attached Homes: 3,623 condos are now on the market vs. 3,657 last month. 878 units went into new escrows in April vs. 921 the month prior. This gives us a turnover rate of 4.13 months vs. 3.97 a month ago and means that prices are neutral to slightly rising. Another 1,457 units went contingent in April vs. 1,446 in March.
I do not usually add the "contingents" into the "new escrows" because it is impossible to determine how many will eventually close escrow due to the nature of short sales.
The data reported above covers all of San Diego County and should not be interpreted as being accurate for specific zip codes or neighborhoods or any area outside of our county. We'd be happy to provide very detailed information for any sub-market in San Diego upon request.
Bottom line for April...the market seems to be fairly stable with prices neutral to slightly rising.
Criteria: <5 months: Neutral to rising, 5-7 months: Neutral, >7 months: Falling
R. Üngar, Associate Broker – Keller Williams Realty
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