This Week; the big data is on Friday with the Feb employment data. Early estimates are for the unemployment rate to remain at 8.3%, non-farm jobs up 207K and non-farm private jobs up 220K. Monday the Feb ISM services sector report will draw attention, estimates call for the index to decline slightly to 56.0 from 56.8 in Jan; a weaker index reading will aid the bond market somewhat. Interest rates were literally unchanged last week with the key 10 yr note very comfortable in its four month long range between 2.10% and 1.90%. Europe’s debt crisis is still out there but has settled a little with Greece getting the funds necessary to avoid defaulting later this month. Attention in Europe will now increasingly focus on Spain as it refuses to adopt the stringent austerity programs forced on Greece.
The bond and markets are in narrow trading ranges, they will likely continue there until another new fresh fundamental comes along. We continue to believe interest rates have seen their lows, however we are not expecting any significant increase in rates in the near future. Last week Bernanke made it clear the Fed was not thinking about another easing move at the moment, that kind of roiled the equity markets momentarily. The differences of opinion remain between the Fed and private forecasters. The Fed remains concerned the economy is not on solid footing, while private investors continue to bid up equity prices on belief the US economy is slow but solid.
TBWS
