Financial Market Update

This Week; after last week’s increase in rates this week has a lot of potential impact on rates. Treasury will auction $99B of notes ($35B 2 yrs on Tuesday, $35B of 5 yrs on Wednesday, and $29B of 7 yr notes on Thursday). Tuesday night the State of the Union address to Congress. Wednesday the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Friday the first look at Q4 GDP. Mixed in all of it, a few key economic reports. Technically, the 10yr treasury has broken its key averages at 2.02%, the MBS market also has moved below its 20 day average on the price, but still is holding its longer term 40 day average.  

The FOMC meeting won’t likely have any new policy implications; the Fed will continue to keep the FF rate at 0.0% to 0.25% as Bernanke indicated months ago. We are not looking for another QE from the Fed; Europe for the moment has stabilized somewhat and the US economy is likely to have grown 3.1% in Q4. Europe’s impact on US markets has lessened recently with Italy and Spain able to auction debt at better rates than two months ago. The debt problems however, are far from being over, it will continue to be a factor throughout this year and at times roil US markets. We are looking for flat markets early this week.

TBWS

Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates

http://www.freddiemac.com/

2012 FIVE STAR Real Estate Agent Award

Our real estate team received the 2012 FIVE STAR Real Estate Agent Award (published in the March issue of San Diego Magazine)

Thank you to all that were contacted by the magazine and voted!





Jeremiah Moersch, Team Leader for The Moersch Team

Financial Market Update

This Week; starts with a meeting in Europe between France’s Sarkozy and Germany’s Merkel. Not sure what may come out of it but the bond and mortgage markets will focus on anything that either forecasts more trouble or some kind of belief that the EU can dodge the on-coming freight train. Later this week (Thursday) the ECB will hold its policy meeting, some think the bank will lower rates again, we don’t believe that will happen however. Lowering rates won’t accomplish much in terms of the debt crisis that eventually will end in defaults.

Treasury will auction $66B of notes and bonds this week; Tuesday, $32B of 3s, Wednesday, $21B of 10s, and Thursday $13B of 30 yr bonds. The amounts are unchanged from the last few months. Wednesday the Fed will release its details on the economy from the 12 districts; normally not much new in the Book, nevertheless it does get attention from traders and analysts. The economic calendar has retail sales and weekly claims on Thursday and the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday---not much data this week. The week remains all about Europe and what comes out of the area. The bond and mortgage markets continue to hold well in narrow ranges with little change in rates; longer term though we expect some increases in rates.

TBWS

REGION: Big waves thrill North County surfers

Professional surfer Taylor Knox of Carlsbad snaps a turn off the top of a big wave at Seaside Reef in Cardiff as the predicted large swells generated from Pacific storms in the north Pacific arrived Friday morning at San Diego County beaches. HAYNE PALMOUR IV

North County Times - January, 6th 2012

Waves up to 12 feet high hit the North County coast Friday morning, with still-higher surf expected through Saturday.

Surfers flocked to popular spots in Encinitas, Carlsbad and Oceanside to ride the swells, which were generated by a distant Pacific storm. Big waves were expected to roll in for the rest of the day, and grow smaller overnight.

Students at La Costa Canyon High School were surfing off Moonlight Beach in Encinitas as part of their physical education class, and a few people were watching the waves from the beach.

Student Nick Scoggins, 18, said he has been surfing for about 10 years, and has seen a handful of swells as big as Friday's.

He said he had been looking forward to riding the bigger waves since he heard they were coming.

"I was stoked," he said. "It was the first big swell we've had all year."

He said he got a few fun rides, and the waves "held up really nice."

The unusually warm weather that has dominated the area for the past several days ---- setting record highs of 80 degrees

January 2012 San Diego Events

January 6-7, 2nd Annual Free E-Waste Recycling Event

Need to get rid of the electronic waste just sitting around your home or office? This free E-waste recycling event is sponsored by Computer Circulation Center, Inc. and the Oceanside Chamber of Commerce.

Time:  9:00 am – 5:00 pm
Location:  2205 Vista Way, Oceanside

For more information call 760-722-1534
 

January 6-8, Gem Faire

The Gem Faire, established in 1989, has become a world-renowned marketplace for the finest gemstones, beads, jewelry, minerals, fossils, meteorites,

Financial Market Update

This week; interest rates are likely to increase a little after two weeks of improvement mostly on safety moves over the holidays. Nothing out of Europe in that time frame, now that the holidays and New year are behind look for renewed comments out of the region. Europe's financial system woes and debt fears still have not been resolved and likely won't be fro many months. The situation has plagued global markets for months; concerns of bank failure contagion and the potential of dragging the US and other economies back into recession have kept US interest rates low and the equity markets quite volatile. Those factors may be lessening, markets have become less fearful of recession and financial system contagion.  

This week is employment week; Friday Dec employment data is expected to show the unemployment at 8.7% up 0.1% frm Nov; non-farm jobs +150K and private job growth at +170K. The stock market will likely set the tone for interest rates, Monday should be an up day for the key indexes with bond and mortgage prices weaker as traders unwind those insurance trades through the holidays. Another reminder; the 10 yr has exhibited difficulty holding below 2.00%; it is more likely rates will increase a little than decline this week.

TBWS