This Week: is employment week with BLS employment data On Friday. IN the meantime there are a number of data points that will get attention. Monday the ISM April manufacturing and Wednesday the ISM services sector. April manufacturing is expected a little weaker but only slightly. Employment at the start of the week and subject to tweaking as the week progresses, is expected to show non-farm job growth at 183K and non-farm private jobs +200K, the unemployment rate unch at 8.8%. Wednesday ADP will report non-arm private jobs at 200K, one of the first times the two reports estimates are the same.
The bond and mortgage markets may see some selling early this week after nice gains over the past two weeks. The economic recovery is slowing, Q1 GDP a month ago was expected up 3.0% to 3.5%, the first look last Thursday was an increase of just 1.8% and Q2 is also seen as slowing. The bellwether 10 yr note hit 3.29% mid-day Friday and likely doesn't have much more left, 3.25% is about all we expect. That said, we are somewhat less negative on the rate markets than just a month ago, rates will likely notch up from now through the rest of the year, possibly 30 to 40 basis points on the note.
TBWS
