This Week; after interest rates fell last week the market will likely have some hurdles to deal with. This is employment week with early estimates of non-farm job growth of 185K and non-farm private jobs up 220K. Although those are early estimates they seem to be much higher than what we think, but we won't fight it as employment is always a wide range of estimates. Prior to the May employment on Friday markets will deal with a number of data points; both ISM reports (manufacturing and servicing), the Chicago purchasing mgrs index, Q1 productivity and unit labor costs.
News over the weekend that there may be a deal working to help Greece with its debt issues. If a deal is worked out US interest rate markets will have trouble holding their recent declines; much of the recent bond market rally has been safety moves on the potential of Greece defaulting o its debt and other countries also in line. If Greece is saved markets will believe all other European countries will also be saved from default. Look for weaker prices in the bond and mortgages to start the week and likely a better US stock market. Last week's decline in interest rates put the levels so low that to keep them there, or even lower, it will take a weak economic outlook and continued safety moves based on Europe's debt problems.
TBWS
