This Week: its all about employment with the ADP data hitting Wednesday and the BLS data on Friday. Last week stocks had a very strong week after being well oversold; the US bond and mortgage markets got hit hard. The Greece dance on the edge of default was temporarily side-stepped, QE 2 ended leaving markets to speculate on whether investors will be willing to pick up the slack, and the economic outlook improved a little. Interest rates increased on all of the above and will likely be extremely volatile again this week.
Rate markets have likely seen their best levels for awhile, as long as the economic data confirms growth and no other European country headlines into default fears. The prime reason though that we expect rates will eventually head a little higher is simply that rates got too low given the uncertainties facing global financial; and equity markets. The economy is not growing nearly fast enough to lower unemployment and the Fed will keep short term rates at their present zero to 0.25% level; that however isn't a reason to expect longer term rates to fall back to under 3.00% on the bellwether 10 yr note.
Besides the employment data this week the June ISM services sector index on Wednesday is key; the early estimate is the index will remain generally unchanged from May at 54.0. The ADP estimate for non-farm private jobs is a scant 60K; the BLS non-farm job growth early forecasts +80K and +110K non-farm private jobs with the unemployment rate unchanged at 9:1%. Likely there will be revisions to the BLS jobs after the wild ADP forecast hits.
TBWS
